Soybeans

Monday’s Recap
Soybean futures were lower Monday with the May contract finishing the session at a one week low of 1007’2, off by 2’4, in a quiet session. Overall volume was a light 169,202, with the May maturity seeing 88,648 traded. Across all maturities, open interest rose by 1,668 (0.20%) to 856,201. May fell by 708, or 0.19%, finishing at 378,008.

Technicals
Soybeans continue to drift lower in the early morning trade. The slow bleed over the last several sessions has yet to inflect any significant technical damage. A break and close below 991-995 3/4 would likely be that trigger point. Below that and the conversation of retesting the December lows becomes very realistic, that comes in at 955 1/2.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1024-1030 1/4***, 1036 1/2-1042****
Pivot: 1008-1013
Support: 991-995 3/4****, 977 1/4**

Fundamental Notes
Brazilian farmers, who have harvested most of their soybean fields across the nation, are set to produce 165.9 million metric tons in the 2024/25 season, 2.3 million tons less than previously forecast, consultancy AgRural said on Monday.

AgRural said that a drought in southern Brazil, impacting mainly Rio Grande do Sul state, has affected the supply outlook in the country, the world’s biggest producer and exporter of the oilseed.

Popular Options
The May 960 put saw the most changing hands with 4,104 contracts traded. Calls with the most open interest are the Nov 1200 strike (15,703), and for the puts are the May 1000 strike (16,634).

Volatility Update
Soybean implied volatility was moderately down as SVL fell by 0.27 to end the session at 16.73, a one week low. Off by 0.0095% to a one month low, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) ended the day at 14.72%. The SVL Skew was moderately up with the 30-day higher by 0.097, finishing at 0.54.

Want to read the FULL article with CHARTS? : https://bluelinefutures.com/2025/03/25/grain-markets-drift-lower-in-the-overnight-trade/

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